Fastest Growing Cities In The U.S In 2024

Terrydale Capital

May 17, 2024 6 Min read

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The United States demonstrated an average growth rate across the nation of 0.5% as reported by the Census Bureau between 2022 and 2023. The majority of the nation’s landmass is still composed of small towns with populations of 20,000 or less with only 39% having populations over 50,000 people and 75% of towns having a population less than 5,000. This is dispersed between the 19,500 incorporated places within the United States. Here we will break down the report from the Census Bureau and what it can signal for commercial real estate investors and developers. 

Current Trends

The Census Bureau report delineates between cities and metropolitan areas and primarily focuses on cities. Small towns in the Northeast and Midwest demonstrated lower declination rates in 2023 compared to 2022 with an average decline of 0.1% and 0.3% compared to 0.2% and 0.4%. Western towns, however, showed a slower growth pace of 0.3% in 2023 compared to 0.5% in 2022. In the South, small towns grew at a rate of 0.6%, which was up from the year prior’s 0.4% growth. 

The South led the nation in growth with a 1% rise in population compared to the 0.2%, 0.1% and 0.2% growth rates in the Northeast, Midwest and West respectively. Which comes as no surprise as 13 of the nation's top 15 growing cities are in the south, with 8 located in Texas alone. 

In the Dallas region, Celina led cities above the 20,000 population range with a population increase of 26.6%, which is a staggering 53 times the average growth rate in the nation. Nine other cities with populations over 20,000 that demonstrated high growth were San Antonio, TX; Fort Worth, TX; Charlotte, NC; Port St. Lucie, FL; Atlanta, GA; Houston, TX; Georgetown, TX; and Raleigh, NC. 

Three states posted the highest amount of housing unit growth. Utah sat at 2.5% growth, Idaho with 2.3% and South Dakota posting 2.2% growth. The fastest growing county overall was Falls Church, Virginia with a 13.5% growth in housing stock. Utah followed with two counties in the top 5 - Rich and Wasatch Counties. 

Cities With The Highest Populations

  • New York, NY
  • Los Angeles, CA
  • Chicago, IL
  • Houston, TX
  • Phoenix, AZ
  • Philadelphia, PA
  • San Antonio, TX
  • San Diego, CA
  • Dallas, TX
  • Jacksonville, FL
  • Fort Worth, TX
  • Austin, TX  

What It Means For CRE Investors

As investors turn their eyes to the market, understanding where the action is and even looking further down the road to where the action could potentially be in the future, are great practices to have. Large metropolitan areas such as Dallas - Fort Worth that have demonstrated consistent surges of growth and development over the last few years have been safe bets for many commercial real estate investors. However, not all cities and metropolitan areas boast the same upside for all assets across the board. Understanding what assets are performing well in larger cities is tantamount to success.

Additionally, investors should not turn their eyes away from smaller cities by thinking only metros have all of the action. Many cities across the nation, and even some not connected to large metropolitan centers, are showing upside for commercial real estate and even boast better ground-floor opportunities for investors at more affordable prices compared to established metro areas. 

In Conclusion

Growth is happening across the nation, but understanding where the trends are and where they are headed is important for commercial real estate investors to consider moving forward. Aside from nationwide trends, it is important to consider more granular approaches when considering where and when to invest in commercial real estate. At Terrydale Capital, we are always on top of the latest commercial real estate trends and developments in order to help our clients find the most successful avenues for their investment opportunities. When you need the right team behind you, contact us today!

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