DFW Apartment Vacancy Depends on Who You Ask. Your Loan Depends on Where You Are.
Terrydale Capital
Sep 21, 2026 8 Min read
You read that DFW apartment vacancy is 9.6 percent, so you build your pro forma on it. Then the appraisal lands and the lender's numbers do not match yours. Nobody made a math error. You used a number that describes a metro of millions of people, and the lender is underwriting one building.
That gap costs real money, and it starts with the fact that there is no single DFW vacancy number.
Three sources, three answers
Cushman & Wakefield put stabilized vacancy in the metro at 9.6 percent in the second quarter of 2026, down 30 basis points from the first. A CoStar-based estimate had DFW vacancy projected to reach 12.6 percent by the end of that same quarter and said it had stayed above 12 percent for a year. Colliers and Transwestern each reported occupancy of 93.8 percent, which is a different measurement altogether.
None of them is wrong. Firms count different sets of buildings, and a figure for stabilized properties does not measure the same thing as one that includes new buildings still leasing up. A borrower who quotes "the DFW number" without saying which one, or where it came from, is inviting the lender to substitute their own.
The metro average hides the spread
C&W's report says vacancy has become increasingly specific to the submarket. Its lowest readings were Grapevine at 5.5 percent, Uptown and Park Cities at 6.5 percent, and North Fort Worth at 7.1 percent. All three sit well under the metro's 9.6.
The other end of the map is the northern corridor. C&W says the remaining construction pipeline is concentrated in northern submarkets, and demand there is strong. Net absorption in the second quarter was 1,671 units in Denton, 1,174 in Allen/McKinney, 921 in Frisco/Little Elm, and 910 in Prosper/Celina. Northmarq's first quarter report added that Allen/McKinney, Frisco, and The Colony/Far North Carrollton together account for about a third of all expected 2026 deliveries. Strong absorption alongside heavy deliveries means new buildings are leasing up against each other. If your property sits in that corridor, your neighbors' concessions are part of your competitive set.
Class splits the market again
Rent growth is not moving in one direction either. Northmarq reported Class A rents up 3.2 percent year over year in the first quarter, the fifth straight quarter of annual growth. Class B posted its first annual increase since 2023. Class C rents kept slipping. Two buildings in the same submarket can sit in different classes with different rent trends.
The metro trend is improving. Second quarter net absorption topped 10,800 units, the strongest quarter since Q3 2021, on deliveries of just over 6,600, well below the roughly 9,000 a quarter delivered in 2023 and 2024. Effective rents ended the quarter at $1,470 per unit, the first quarterly increase in over a year, though still 2.8 percent below a year ago. That improvement is landing unevenly by submarket, which is the whole point.
What four points of vacancy cost
Take a 100-unit property at the metro's $1,470 average effective rent. These are illustrative numbers, not a specific deal. Each vacant unit costs $17,640 a year, and on 100 units each point of vacancy is one unit.
Compare one building at 5.5 percent vacancy, the Grapevine reading, with another at 9.6 percent, the metro figure. The gap is 4.1 points, or about $72,300 a year in collected rent. Vacancy flows to NOI nearly dollar for dollar. A lender sizing on a 9 percent debt yield would size roughly $800,000 less in proceeds on that gap. At a 6 percent cap rate, the same NOI difference is about $1.2 million of value.
The direction matters. Use the metro number on a low-vacancy submarket and you undersell the property. Use a low-vacancy number on a building in the northern corridor and the lender will correct you, usually after you have told your partners what to expect.
What to bring to the lender
An appraiser does not value your building off a metro average. Comparable properties near it drive the number, and lenders read your actual rent roll and trailing collections against what is happening nearby. So bring the data at that level. Pick one named source for submarket vacancy and rent trends, and cite it every time. Know your own occupancy and concessions over the last twelve months. If you sit in the northern corridor, show the deliveries within a few miles of your property and how your lease-up or renewal pace compares. If you sit in a tight submarket, make sure the comps in your package reflect it.
Our guide to what credit metrics DFW lenders use covers DSCR, LTV, and debt yield. Our explainers on absorption and lease-up cover the market terms above.
Terrydale is a commercial mortgage broker, not a lender. Before a deal goes to our lender network, our advisory team can look at your submarket, your class, and your numbers and tell you how the deal will read. Whether you are buying or refinancing, multifamily financing starts there. See our overview of apartment building loan solutions in Dallas, or talk to us about your property.
Partner With Terrydale Capital for Your Debt Financing Needs
When it comes to debt financing, understanding the right timing, process, and options is crucial. At Terrydale Capital, we provide a comprehensive range of commercial loan solutions tailored to meet your business's unique needs.
Success!
Product has been created successfully!
Headquartered in Dallas, Texas, Terrydale Capital is a leader in commercial real estate financing. We have close relationships with the nation’s top banks, lenders & family offices allowing us to provide the most competitive financing solutions in the market.
